Reflection | Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk — June 2021
Executive summary
The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk, published in June 2021 by the Adaptation Committee of the Committee on Climate Change (CCRA3), provides the most comprehensive review to date of the risks and opportunities that climate change presents to the United Kingdom up to 2100.
The assessment draws on nearly 1,500 pages of Technical Report analysis supported by a wider evidence base that totals some 3,500 pages and was informed by contributions from over 450 experts and 130 organisations.
The report identifies 61 risks and opportunities and concludes that the UK is not keeping pace with the rising rate of climate risk.
It highlights eight priority areas that require urgent national attention and sets out ten principles for effective adaptation policy. Climate Change Committee+1
The headline finding is stark. The Committee states that the pace of change in risk has outstripped the pace of adaptation, so that "progress with adaptation policy and implementation is not keeping up with the rate of increase in climate risk and that the risks to all aspects of life in the UK have increased over the last five years." The assessment records that 56 per cent of the risks and opportunities it examined received the highest urgency score, compared with 36 per cent in the previous assessment in 2016. Climate Change Committee
The report is clinical in tone and practical in orientation. It quantifies where possible, it highlights areas of large uncertainty, it identifies threshold effects and interacting risks and it frames adaptation as an essential complement to mitigation. The Committee emphasises that, without effective adaptation, the UK will struggle to deliver wider governmental and societal objectives including the delivery of net zero outcomes. The report therefore calls for an immediate and sustained national programme of adaptation action across government, regulated sectors, business and communities. Climate Change Committee
Scope, evidence and assessment approach
CCRA3 assesses the known risks and opportunities from climate change for the UK. It considers a set of climate scenarios that include lower and higher global warming pathways and explores impacts under 2°C and 4°C global warming scenarios to 2100. For each of the 61 risks and opportunities the assessment sets out: the current and future magnitude of impact under different scenarios; the state of current and planned adaptation; and, the benefits of further adaptation over the next five years. The Technical Report underpinning the assessment runs to nearly 1,500 pages and the independent assessment in total comprises some 3,500 pages of analysis. Climate Change Committee+1
The evidence base is multidisciplinary and draws on peer reviewed science, sector analyses, modelling and stakeholder engagement. The Committee was explicit that not all risks could be monetised and that many risks are characterised by deep uncertainty and by low probability but high magnitude outcomes. The assessment therefore combines quantitative valuation where available with qualitative and narrative analyses for those areas where monetary valuation is incomplete or infeasible. The Committee cautions against simplistic aggregation of cost estimates into a single national figure because the evidence is heterogeneous in methods, assumptions and coverage. Climate Change Committee
Key findings — increasing urgency across multiple sectors
Rising overall urgency
A central conclusion is that the UK is less well prepared for climate change than it was five years earlier. The Committee reports that "only four of the 61 risks and opportunities have been scored as not having an adaptation gap," and that the share of risks assigned the highest urgency rating has risen markedly since the previous assessment. This indicates not only greater projected impacts but also an absence of commensurate adaptation effort. Climate Change Committee
Eight priority areas for urgent action
The Committee identifies eight priority areas that require urgent national attention. These priority areas are presented as those where further adaptation within the next five years will deliver the largest and most immediate benefit to the UK. They are:
flood risk to people, homes and businesses from surface water, river and coastal flooding
risks to health from high temperatures and heatwaves, including impacts on those living and working in cities
risk of water shortages for people and businesses and for the natural environment
risks to natural capital including freshwater ecosystems, terrestrial habitats, soils and species
risks to agriculture and food production from a range of weather and climate drivers
risks to infrastructure from flooding, high temperatures and changing demand patterns as net zero is delivered
risks from cascading impacts across interdependent systems, including critical infrastructure and services
international dimensions of climate risk such as impacts on trade, migration and the UK’s overseas interests and supply chains. Climate Change Committee
The prioritisation reflects a combination of magnitude of impact, the size of the adaptation gap and the feasibility of delivering significant additional adaptation benefits in the short term. The Committee emphasises that action on these priorities will both reduce immediate risks and lower the long term costs of climate impacts. Climate Change Committee
Higher magnitude of future impacts
For many hazards the assessment judges future magnitudes to be larger than previously projected. In particular, the number of individual risks with very high annual damage costs is projected to increase markedly in a 2°C scenario compared with the present day and to increase still further in a 4°C scenario. The Valuation Report that accompanies CCRA3 illustrates that annual damage costs for selected hazards increase tenfold by the 2080s under the 4°C scenario for those hazards where valuation estimates exist. The Committee warns that such figures are partial because they do not cover all risks or non-market impacts. Climate Change Committee
The adaptation gap and institutional readiness
Adaptation gap
The assessment uses an "adaptation gap" concept to judge how well risks are being managed. The finding that 57 out of 61 risks show an adaptation gap implies that, across the UK, either planning is not in place or existing measures are insufficient to reduce risk to acceptable levels. The Committee underlines that the UK has the capacity and resources to respond but has not yet deployed them at the scale and speed required. It notes that acting now will be cheaper than waiting to deal with the consequences. Climate Change Committee
Fragmentation of responsibility
A consistent theme is that responsibility for adaptation is fragmented across national, devolved, local and sectoral actors and that governance arrangements have not yet been reformed to match the scale and systemic nature of the threat. The Committee calls for clearer national leadership, stronger accountability and improved long term funding frameworks to support sustained adaptation. It sets out ten principles for effective adaptation policy, including principles to embed risk assessment in policy cycles and to use finance to incentivise resilience. Climate Change Committee
Economic and societal implications
Costs and valuation caveats
CCRA3 does not produce a single national monetary estimate of climate damages because of methodological differences and incomplete evidence across the range of risks. Nevertheless the Valuation Report provides illustrative examples that make the scale of potential economic exposure clear. The Committee stresses that in many cases adaptation is highly cost effective and that delaying investment will lead to substantially higher costs later. It also highlights risks to achieving broader societal objectives, for example in health, housing and the delivery of net zero itself if natural capital is degraded. Climate Change Committee
Thresholds and interacting risks
The report pays detailed attention to threshold effects and to the risk that multiple failures may interact across systems. For instance, the report finds that increasing urban overheating together with higher energy demand for cooling and the electrification of transport and heat could create significant strains on the power system if not planned for. Similarly, flooding can trigger cascading impacts across transport, power, health services and commerce that substantially amplify direct damages. The Committee stresses that adaptation planning must therefore move beyond siloed responses to consider system wide resilience. Climate Change Committee
Distributional impacts and vulnerability
CCRA3 draws attention to how climate risks interact with existing inequalities. For example, heat impacts are concentrated among older people and those with pre existing health conditions, while flood risk disproportionately affects households lacking savings and insurance cover. The Committee highlights the need for targeted measures that protect the most vulnerable groups and warns that adaptation policies must be designed to avoid exacerbating social inequalities. Climate Change Committee
Sectoral highlights
Health and urban areas
Heat represents a rising threat to public health. The Committee records a notable increase in the urgency of action on high temperatures and heatwaves and highlights that many new homes built in recent years are not resilient to future high temperatures. The report states "over 570,000 new homes have been built that are not resilient to future high temperatures" and calls for urgent changes to housing standards and urban planning to reduce exposure and protect health in cities. Climate Change Committee+1
Water resources
Water availability is a priority concern. The assessment finds a significant risk of water shortages in parts of the UK under higher warming scenarios, particularly in the south and east. It highlights the need for integrated demand management, investment in infrastructure and stronger planning to balance competing needs including environmental flows for ecosystems. The Committee argues that failure to act on water scarcity would affect people, businesses and the natural environment. Climate Change Committee
Natural environment and biodiversity
The natural environment is judged to be among the most exposed areas of risk. The report identifies risks to freshwater ecosystems, terrestrial habitats and soils. It emphasises that protecting natural capital is essential not only for biodiversity but also for mitigation and adaptation goals. The Committee stresses that "we cannot rely on nature to sequester carbon unless we ensure that our peat, our trees and our wetlands are healthy, not only today but under the climatic conditions we will experience in the future." This linkage between adaptation and net zero is a prominent theme. Climate Change Committee
Agriculture and food security
Agriculture faces multiple stresses from temperature extremes, pests, diseases and water availability. The report points to both risks and potential opportunities, for example altered growing seasons, but emphasises that realising benefits will require active management and adaptation of farming practices. Food system resilience is also connected to international risks such as supply chain disruption and global yield changes. Climate Change Committee
Infrastructure and energy
Infrastructure systems are at risk from multiple climate hazards. The assessment highlights the increasing dependence on electricity associated with decarbonisation and electrification, noting that this increases the consequences from power outages. It concludes that infrastructure owners and regulators must plan for higher temperatures, greater flood risk and new patterns of demand to ensure reliability as the UK decarbonises. The report highlights that failure to integrate adaptation into net zero planning could create critical vulnerabilities. Climate Change Committee
International dimensions
CCRA3 recognises that the UK’s exposure to climate risk extends beyond its borders. The Committee addresses risks to trade, supply chains and diplomatic and humanitarian interests overseas. It highlights that international impacts can amplify domestic risks, for example via food price volatility, displacement and disruptions to critical imports. The report recommends that adaptation planning should therefore include consideration of international dependencies and foreign policy implications. Climate Change Committee
Principles and policy recommendations
Ten principles for good adaptation policy
To guide the design of a national adaptation programme the Committee sets out ten principles. These include clear national leadership and accountability, long term funding and finance mechanisms, mainstreaming of adaptation into sectoral policies, improved data and monitoring, a focus on the most urgent priorities and evaluation of adaptation interventions to improve learning and performance. The Committee recommends embedding these principles across government and the devolved administrations to create a durable and coherent national response. Climate Change Committee
Institutional reforms and governance
The Committee calls for stronger governance arrangements to address fragmentation. This includes clear cross government responsibility, statutory requirements for long term adaptation planning at local and sectoral levels and mechanisms to align public and private investment with adaptation objectives. The report also emphasises the role of regulators and the need for adaptation to be integrated into regulatory frameworks for finance, utilities and infrastructure. Climate Change Committee
Investment and finance
CCRA3 stresses that many adaptation measures are cost effective and that upfront investment can substantially reduce future damages. The Committee calls for public investment to leverage private finance, for insurance markets to be aligned with resilience incentives and for fiscal frameworks to provide stable funding for long term adaptation infrastructure. It also recommends that economic appraisal methods be improved to account for non market values and long term risks. Climate Change Committee
Evidence gaps and research priorities
The Committee is candid about evidence limitations. Key gaps include valuation of non market impacts, better understanding of low probability high impact events, improved regional and sector specific projections and more systematic assessment of cascading and interacting risks. The report calls for a targeted research agenda and for better data collection and monitoring to inform future assessments and policy choices. Climate Change Committee+1
Benefits of timely action
The assessment sets out the benefits of adaptation action in both qualitative and quantitative terms. Where valuation evidence exists, adaptation is often shown to be highly cost effective. The Committee emphasises that many measures will protect public health, support economic stability, safeguard natural capital and preserve the conditions necessary to deliver net zero. The judgement is unequivocal: acting now will reduce costs, save lives and protect the economy. As the Committee puts it, "CCRA3 is an assessment of the known risks of climate change, and it is time for the UK to respond." Climate Change Committee
Selected direct quotations
The following quotations are taken from the Committee’s June 2021 Advice Report and are reproduced with reference for readers who wish to consult the primary document:
"Progress with adaptation policy and implementation is not keeping up with the rate of increase in climate risk and that the risks to all aspects of life in the UK have increased over the last 5 years." Climate Change Committee
"Only by preparing for the coming changes can the UK protect its people, its economy and its natural environment." Climate Change Committee
"We cannot rely on nature to sequester carbon unless we ensure that our peat, our trees and our wetlands are healthy, not only today but under the climatic conditions we will experience in the future." Climate Change Committee
"The Technical Report runs to nearly 1 500 pages, with further evidence presented in a series of accompanying research reports. In total, the independent assessment consists of 3 500 pages of analysis." Climate Change Committee
"The number of individual risks with very high annual damage costs (£ billions/year) could triple in the 2°C scenario compared to the present day." Climate Change Committee
Implications for business and government
For government, the message is to adopt a whole of government approach that aligns national objectives, regulatory frameworks and funding mechanisms with the adaptation priorities identified. The Committee’s recommendations require sustained political commitment and institutional change to translate assessment into action.
For business, the report underscores the need to integrate climate risk into strategic planning, investment appraisal and supply chain management. Firms are advised to assess physical climate exposure, to engage with regulators and insurers on resilience and to consider adaptation in capital projects and operational planning. Sectors with long lived assets, critical infrastructure and complex supply chains should treat adaptation as a strategic priority. Climate Change Committee
Conclusion
The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk published in June 2021 is a thorough, evidence based and policy oriented report that signals a decisive shift in the national adaptation imperative. It finds that climate risks have increased, that most assessed risks exhibit significant adaptation gaps and that eight areas merit urgent action. The Committee sets a clear agenda: secure national leadership on adaptation, close the adaptation gap, prioritise those risks that can be addressed in the next five years and align adaptation with the delivery of net zero. The assessment leaves no room for complacency. As the Committee observes, adapting now is cheaper, fairer and safer than waiting for impacts to materialise. Climate Change Committee+1
References and further reading
Primary sources
Committee on Climate Change. Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk, Advice to Government for CCRA3. June 2021. PDF. (CCRA3 Advice Report). Climate Change Committee
CCRA3 Technical Report and supporting materials. UK Climate Risk (technical report repository). June 2021. (Technical Report and sectoral evidence base). UK Climate Risk+1
Supplementary analyses and summaries
UK Climate Change Committee. Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk — webpage and publication notice. 16 June 2021. Climate Change Committee
LSE Grantham Research Institute. Summary resources on the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. LSE
Notes on quotation and citation
Quotations reproduced in this summary are taken directly from the Committee’s Advice Report PDF. Readers who require fuller context or wish to consult the detailed technical analyses, valuation annexes and sector chapters should refer to the Technical Report and the CCRA3 evidence repository. The Technical Report contains the full risk scoring, scenario definitions and the methodological appendices referred to in this summary. Climate Change Committee+1
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